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Air Force vs Boise State NCAAF Pick & Prediction

Even after an upset home loss last Saturday for the Broncos, the Friday Night Football Air Force-Boise State game will still have implications for a berth in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game. But surprisingly, it's the visiting Falcons who control their own fate, not perennial power Boise State, which will need wins plus help to have a chance to defend its league title.


ESPN2 has the national television broadcast of Air Force and Boise State from the blue turf field in Boise at 9:30 p.m. Eastern on Friday Night Football.


Air Force held up its end in ensuring the Air Force-Boise State game would play a key role in determining the Mountain Division title by defeating tough divisional foe Utah State last Saturday, 35-28. The Falcons climbed to 7-3 overall and 5-1 in the Mountain West Conference with the win against Utah State, which was their 12th straight home win over two seasons. After the Air Force-Boise State FNF contest, the Falcons will finish the season at New Mexico.


Speaking of New Mexico, the vastly improved Lobos stunned Boise State in Boise last Saturday, 31-24, becoming just the fifth visiting team to win on the blue turf in a decade and a half. New Mexico and Boise State are tied in the division at 4-2, with the Lobos now owning the tie-breaker against the Broncos. Air Force is one game ahead of those two teams in the Mountain Division.


While Boise State's 7-3 record is a bit below its usual standards, it might be even a bit inflated, as the Broncos have not beaten a team that currently has an above .500 record. And the Broncos are 0-2 against teams that are above .500, losing 35-24 at BYU (7-3) and losing against New Mexico (6-4). Boise State also has lost 52-26 at Utah State (5-5) this season.


Friday's Air Force-Boise State game will only be the fourth all-time meeting between the two teams with the Broncos leading 2 games to 1. While Air Force has never won in Boise, the Falcons did knock off Boise State in Colorado Springs last season, 28-14.


The Falcons will carry a four-game win streak into the Air Force-Boise State game. Air Force also compiled a four-game win streak late last season, putting itself in position to compete for a divisional title, but the Falcons fell in late November at San Diego State, ending their hopes of qualifying for the Mountain West Championship Game. Instead, Boise State qualified and won the league title, despite losing head to head against the Falcons last season.