NCAA Basketball Picks

Oklahoma Sooners (27-4) vs Morehead State Eagles (19-15): - Oklahoma appeared to be steam rolling toward a Big 12 Conference regular-season championship, sporting an 11-0 conference record with five games to play. Then star player Blake Griffin, a 6-foot-10 sophomore who was the Big 12 player of the year while scoring 22.1 points per game and pulling down 14.2 rebounds per game, suffered a concussion early in a game against Texas. The Sooners lost to Texas and Kansas without Griffin, and, consequently, lost the league regular-season title, finishing one game behind Kansas. Oklahoma also lost at Missouri late in the year, meaning the Sooners finished the regular season with three losses in their last five games. With rumors of chemistry problems in the locker room swirling around the Sooners, they'll have something to prove in the NCAA Tournament. Before Griffin's injury, Oklahoma opened the year 25-1, losing only at Arkansas, which finished last in the SEC, in late December. Despite its late struggles, Oklahoma posted a very impressive 9-3 record against the Top 50 of the RPI, and it won 17 games against Top 100 RPI teams during the season. Oklahoma won eight non-conference games against teams that finished in the Top 75 of the RPI, including wins against UAB, Purdue, Utah, and Virginia Commonwealth. BEST WINS: 89-81 at Oklahoma State; 70-52 vs. Utah; 78-63 vs. Texas; 69-63 at Texas A&M. WORST LOSS: 96-88 at Arkansas.

Morehead State earned the automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament out of the Ohio Valley Conference by winning the conference tournament championship game in double overtime against Austin Peay. Morehead State was fourth in the regular-season, just two games behind Tennessee-Martin. Four Eagles players averaged double-figure points this season. Kenneth Faried, a 6-8 sophomore, averaged 13.8 points and 12.9 rebounds per game. The Eagles did not beat a team in the Top 100 of the RPI all season, and they had a strength of schedule ranking of #197. Morehead State opened the season on a six-game losing streak, and the Eagles won only two games against Division-1 teams outside of the OVC all season. In its only two games against major college teams this season, Morehead State was blown out, losing 74-48 at Vanderbilt and 79-41 at Louisville. The Eagles lost four straight games entering the OVC Tournament, before claiming three straight wins there. BEST WINS: 71-61 at East Tennessee St; 84-74 at Austin Peay; 80-71 vs. Tennessee-Martin. WORST LOSSES: 79-74 vs. Florida A&M; 72-71 vs. Grambling; 67-61 at Eastern Illinois.

Michigan State Spartans (25-5): vs Robert Morris Colonials (24-10): - In a Big Ten Conference that had a lot of balance this season, Michigan State was the one dominant team, winning the regular-season league championship by four games over second-place Illinois and Purdue. Michigan State has been ranked in the Top 10 most of the season, and the Spartans are in the running for a #1 regional seed in the NCAA Tournament. Five different players average at least 8.8 points per game for the Spartans, led by 6-foot-0 sophomore Kalin Lucas, who scores 14.8 points per game and hands out 4.6 assists per game. Michigan State played a particularly strong non-conference schedule this season, and the Spartans dominated Big 12 Conference teams, defeating Oklahoma State, 94-79, Texas, 67-63, and league champion Kansas, 75-62. The Spartans did not fare quite as well against ACC teams, losing 98-63 against league-champion North Carolina and 80-62 against Maryland. Michigan State was a very impressive 12-2 against the RPI Top 50 this season, and the Spartans were an outstanding 9-1 in true road games. However, Michigan State had a couple of surprising home losses against Northwestern and Penn State. BEST WINS: 75-62 vs. Kansas; 74-66 at Illinois; 94-79 vs. Oklahoma State; 78-67 at Ohio State. WORST LOSSES: 72-68 vs. Penn State; 70-63 vs. Northwestern; 80-62 vs. Maryland.

A last-second basket propelled Robert Morris to its first NCAA Tournament bid since 1992, as the Colonials defeated Mount St. Mary's, 48-46, in the championship game of the Northeast Conference Tournament. Robert Morris also won the regular-season championship in the NEC, finishing three games clear of the three teams tied for second. Jeremy Chappell, a 6-foot-3 senior, leads the Colonials in every key statistical category. Chappell averages 16.9 points, 6.3 rebounds, 3.2 assists, and 2.5 steals per game, and he shoots 85.7% from the free-throw line. Robert Morris played a weak schedule this season, ranking #252 nationally in schedule strength. The Colonials were 0-4 against teams in the Top 100 of the RPI. Twenty-three of Robert Morris' 34 games this season came against teams outside the Top 200 of the RPI, and the Colonials lost to four teams with RPI rankings above #250. Robert Morris was 0-4 against teams from major conferences, losing 69-55 at Rutgers, 70-62 at Miami, 78-57 at Xavier, and 92-72 at Pittsburgh. After opening the season 6-7, Robert Morris won nine games in a row, en route to finishing the regular-season on an 18-3 streak. The Colonials will carry a five-game winning streak into the NCAA Tournament. BEST WINS: 77-70 at Mount St. Mary's; 66-63 vs. Mount St. Mary's; 48-46 vs. Mount St. Mary's; 72-70 at Sacred Heart. WORST LOSSES: 60-57 at Monmouth; 62-59 at Wagner; 87-79 vs. St. Francis (NY); 72-55 vs. Marist.

Memphis Tigers (28-3): vs Cal State Northridge Matadors (17-13) - After losing several players from last season's national runner-up, most prognosticators expected Memphis to take a step backward while reloading this season. Someone forgot to tell the Tigers, though, who cruised to yet another undefeated Conference USA regular-season championship and put themselves in position to receive a #1 regional seed in the NCAA Tournament. In the early portion of the season, it looked like the experts might be right, as Memphis lost a neutral-site game to Xavier, 63-58, lost at Georgetown, 79-70, and lost at home against Syracuse, 72-65. However, the Tigers won their next 22 games after the Syracuse loss in dominating fashion, as only two of those games were decided by six or fewer points. Tyreke Evans, a 6-foot-6 freshman, leads four Tigers players in double figures with 16.9 points per game. Evans also averages 5.5 rebounds and 3.7 assists per game. Robert Dozier, a 6-9 senior, adds 12.9 points and 6.9 rebounds per game. Memphis finished 16-0 in C-USA, four games clear of second-place Tulsa. Memphis excelled away from home this season, going 10-1 in true road games and 2-1 in neutral-site games. The Tigers were 4-2 against the RPI Top 50 and 14-3 against the RPI Top 100. BEST WINS: 54-52 at Tennessee; 68-50 at Gonzaga; 71-60 at UAB; 55-54 at Tulsa. WORST LOSS: 79-70 at Georgetown.

It took overtime, but when you've waited eight years for an NCAA Tournament berth, what's another 5 minutes? Cal State Northridge clinched only its second NCAA Tournament berth in school history after a 71-66 overtime win against Pacific in the Big West Conference Tournament championship game. The Matadors are an improbable NCAA Tournament team after losing their first six games of the season against Division I competition and after sporting a 6-10 record in late January. Cal State Northridge, however, surged late, winning 11 of its final 14 games. Northridge was 0-2 against Pacific during the regular season, but it avenged those setbacks in the conference tournament. Despite the losses to Pacific, the Matadors still managed to win the Big West regular-season title by one game over Pacific and Long Beach State. Northridge did not defeat a team the entire season with an RPI of better than #140, and the Matadors lost 10 games against teams outside the Top 100 of the RPI. Against major-conference teams, Cal State Northridge was 0-2, losing 103-85 at Stanford and 85-67 at UCLA. The Matadors also lost to two NCAA Tournament at-large contenders, falling 85-74 at New Mexico and 72-56 at San Diego State. Deon Tresvant, a 6-foot-0 senior, leads Northridge at 13.3 points per game. Tremaine Townsend, a 6-9 senior, adds 10.9 points and 8.4 rebounds per game. BIG WINS: 71-66 vs. Pacific; 95-74 vs. Long Beach State; 72-70 at UC Santa Barbara. WORST LOSSES: 67-65 at Cal State Bakersfield; 73-51 at UC Irvine; 91-87 vs. Cal State Fullerton.

Duke Blue Devils (25-6): vs Binghamton Bearcats (23-8): - Duke knows exactly what stood between it and a piece of the Atlantic Coast Conference regular-season championship: North Carolina. Duke lost both games against its cross-state rivals, and the Blue Devils finished two games behind North Carolina in the league race. Gerald Henderson, a 6-foot-4 junior, scores 16.6 points per game to lead the Blue Devils, and Kyle Singler, a 6-8 sophomore, scores 16.5 points and pulls down 7.7 rebounds. Duke has a 6-5 record against the RPI Top 50, including wins against Florida State (twice), Wake Forest, Purdue, and Xavier. Duke also has an impressive total of 15 wins against teams in the RPI Top 100. Like several different teams, the Blue Devils have spent a week ranked #1 in the country, and they have been a Top 10 ranked team all season long. Duke opened the season with eight straight wins, and they were at 18-1 in late January. However, Duke dropped four of its next six games. The Blue Devils rebounded to win five games in a row before losing the regular-season finale, 79-71, at North Carolina. BEST WINS: 101-91 vs. Wake Forest; 66-58 at Florida State; 84-81 vs. Florida State; 82-64 vs. Xavier. WORST LOSSES: 80-74 at Boston College; 81-73 at Michigan.