Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars Pick and Preview

Indianapolis (10-4) looked like a long shot for the playoffs after a Week 8 loss at Tennessee, 31-21, that dropped the Colts to 3-4. Since then, however, the Colts have roared to seven straight wins, playing their way into a good position for a wild card playoff berth.

Jacksonville (5-9), meanwhile, was 3-3 at one point this season, but the Jaguars offense has gone stagnant over the last half of the season, and Jacksonville is left to play out the string to a disappointing season. The Jaguars did manage to break a four-game losing streak Sunday with a 20-16 home win against Green Bay.

It would appear that the AFC South Colts-Jaguars matchup will turn on the play of the Jacksonville defense against the Colt offense. Jacksonville’s offense has sputtered since its mid-October bye week, scoring more than 20 points only once, against winless Detroit. With that in mind, the Jaguar defense knows it needs to keep the Indianapolis offense in check.

That will be a difficult task as Indianapolis has scored at least 23 points five times during its seven-game win streak. The Colt offense has been a little less potent on the road this season, averaging only 18.4 points per game over its last five road games. Over its last five home games, Jacksonville is allowing almost 24 points per game, and the Jaguars are just 2-5 at home this season.

The Indianapolis Colts rank 20th in the NFL in total offense, while Jacksonville ranks 21st. In scoring offense, though, Indianapolis ranks 19th, while the Jacksonville Jaguars drop to 24th.

Defensively, the Colts and Jaguars rank close to each other, too. Indianapolis ranks 12th in total defense, while the Jaguars are 14th. In scoring defense, however, the difference between Indianapolis and Jacksonville is more significant. The Colts rank 7th in scoring defense in the NFL, while the Jaguars are 19th.

Indianapolis is plus-8 in turnover margin this season, while struggling Jacksonville is minus-3.

As a road favorite this season, Indianapolis is 1-1-1 against the spread. Most recently, the Colts had a push at Cleveland as a 4-point favorite Nov. 30.

As a home underdog this season, Jacksonville is 1-1 against the spread. Sunday, the Jaguars were a 2.5-point underdog against Green Bay, winning outright.

In mid-September, the Jaguars (as a 4-point underdog) edged the Colts 23-21 in Indianapolis, when kicker Josh Scobee drilled a 51-yard field goal with 4 seconds to play. In the first Indianapolis Colts-Jacksonville Jaguars meeting, Jacksonville shredded the Colt defense for 236 yards rushing, something Jacksonville hasn’t been able to duplicate during its swoon over the past half of the season. The Jaguar defense limited Indy quarterback Peyton Manning to 216 yards passing with only one touchdown and two interceptions.

Last season in Jacksonville, Indianapolis won 29-7 as a 3-point favorite. The Colts have won three of their last four trips to Jacksonville, with the only loss coming in Indianapolis’ Super Bowl winning season (2006). Since joining Jacksonville in the AFC South before the 2002 season, Indianapolis has been favored in each of its seven trips to Jacksonville, including this season.