Superbowl 44 Predictions & Picks

NFL Playoffs - Super Bowl XLIV Sunday, Feb. 7 - 6:25 p.m. Eastern - CBS Indianapolis Colts (16-2) vs. New Orleans Saints (15-3)

More than four decades of futility came to an end with one kick in the NFC Championship Game ... now we’ll see whether the feel-good story of New Orleans’ first ever Super Bowl trip will wrap up with an NFL championship.

The Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints will play in Super Bowl 44 at 6:25 p.m. Eastern on CBS Sunday, Feb. 7, in Miami. The Colts and Saints both were the top seeds in the conference playoffs, and both overcame deficits in the conference championship games to reach Super Bowl 44. The early line placed the Colts as a 4.5-point favorite over the Saints.

Both the Colts and Saints also flirted with perfect regular seasons into December. The Saints won their first 13 games before losing three straight games to close out the regular season. However, New Orleans shook off its shaky finish to defeat Arizona, 45-14, and Minnesota, 31-28 in overtime, in the playoffs to advance to the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history under quarterback Drew Brees.

The Colts did even better, winning their first 14 games before resting starters and losing their final two regular season games. The strategy worked, as Indianapolis was fresh in the playoffs, defeating Baltimore, 20-3, and the New York Jets, 30-17, to advance to Super Bowl 44 behind quarterback Peyton Manning. As a side note, Peyton Manning will be playing against the Saints, a team where his father, Archie Manning, starred as a quarterback on poor teams for many years. Peyton Manning led the Colts to a victory in Super Bowl 41, defeating Chicago, 29-17. That game is the only other Super Bowl appearance for the Colts franchise since it moved to Indianapolis.

Both teams were great in close games this season. New Orleans went 3-1 in games decided by three points or less and 5-2 in games decided by eight points or less. Indianapolis was 7-0 in games decided by four points or less.

Common Opponents

The Colts and Saints did not play during the regular season. The Colts were 5-2 against the opponents they had in common with the Saints, although the Colts blowout loss at Buffalo to close out the regular season came when the Colts rested their starters. Indianapolis also rested starters for much of its regular-season loss to the Jets. The Saints, meanwhile, were 6-0 against the common opponents.

Vs. Arizona: Colts win 31-10. Saints win 45-14.

Vs. Buffalo: Colts lose 30-7. Saints win 27-7.

Vs. Miami: Colts win 27-23. Saints win 46-34.

Vs. New England: Colts win 35-34. Saints win 38-17.

Vs. New York Jets: Colts split two games, winning 30-17 and losing 29-15. Saints win 24-10.

Vs. St. Louis: Colts win 42-6. Saints win 28-23.

Against Playoff Teams

The Saints were 5-1 against playoff qualifiers, with just two of those five wins coming in the postseason. The Saints defeated Minnesota, 31-28 in overtime; defeated Arizona, 45-14; defeated New England, 38-17; defeated the New York Jets, 24-10; defeated Philadelphia, 48-22; and lost to Dallas, 24-17.

Meanwhile, the Colts were also 5-1 against playoff qualifiers. The Colts split two games with the New York Jets, winning 30-17 and losing 29-15; defeated Baltimore twice, 20-3 and 17-15; defeated New England, 35-34; and defeated Arizona, 31-10.

Point Spread Records

The Colts were 12-5-1 ATS this season, including a 5-1 mark start to the season and a 7-2 record over their last nine games ATS.

New Orleans finished 9-9 ATS this season. However, the Saints were just 1-6 over their last seven ATS games and 3-9 over their last 12 ATS games.

Indianapolis was 3-1 ATS when favored by between four and seven points this season. New Orleans has been an underdog only once all season, losing 23-10 as a 10-point underdog in the regular season finale at Carolina, when the Saints rested starters.